Regular Joes World Blog for Season 27 - Edition 1
Hey everyone! Welcome to the 1st edition of the “New” HBD Regular Joes Blog. This blog is intended to provide news and analysis of the inner workings of the players, teams, owners, game results and seasonal exploits during Season 27 of “What If Sports’” - Hard Ball Dynasty, Regular Joes World.
I hope to provide entertaining content, but I can’t promise
to provide a blog with high-end graphical content, for while I’ve been known to
be able to write, computer technical capability is a trait that I’ve never
mastered.
I want to keep this introduction brief but I’d like to
explain why I do this…”this” being, play Hard Ball Dynasty and provide this
blog.
In my career I was a ASQ Certified, Manager of Quality and Organizational
Excellence; Quality Engineer & Quality Auditor. Some of that field has to do with studying
processes and working on process improvement and some involves working with
numbers, spreadsheets, control charts and process capability studies.
During another part of my life, I was a baseball coach…a
successful baseball coach; once taking a team as far as the World’s
Championship game, (which we lost on a homerun by the opposing team that broke
a tie ballgame in the top of the last inning.)
That came to a crashing halt in February of 2016, when I was
stricken with a rare neurological syndrome that initially left me paralyzed
from the eyes down, in a coma for six weeks, on a ventilator and feed tube and
seven total months in hospitals and rehab facilities. I had pneumonia twice and sepsis twice. On two occasions, my wife was told it was
unlikely I’d make it through a night. But
survive, I did.
Today, five years later, I still have physical deficits
(deficits I can live with but that have left me with a designation as
permanently disabled), and as part of the syndrome and medications; a somewhat
clouded mind. What I have is a nuisance
and not a death sentence, so here I am today…disabled but much improved but
often with extra time on my hands that Hard Ball Dynasty still helps to fill.
I discovered HBD in late 2016 once I had recovered enough to
have some use of my hands, and my wife bought me a new lap top to use in rehab
to help improve my manual and mental dexterity. I often ask myself, “Is HBD a baseball game or
simply a numbers game?” Well, either way
it satisfies both those elements for my mind.
Now that the introduction is complete, let’s get on to the anticipated
part. To start this blog, I’d like to do
an expose on “My Analysis of the 25 Best Players – Season 27.”
I’m presently in my 47th season of HBD and while
I’m not the best of players, I’ve had a little success and am far from the
worst of players. To my way of thinking,
success in this game is about 65%, a process and 35%, luck.
A quality engineer could describe a process in algebraic terms
: Success defined either as Winning
or trying to obtain the best players = f(x)
Success is a function of “X.”
Around about season 20-25 of my experience with HBD, I
started throwing sets of players into a large spreadsheet which I built and
trying to reverse engineer this game as a function of “success.”. To this day, I continue to refine that
spreadsheet, and as time permits, add more and more data and refine the
calculations to it. This spreadsheet
works in a manner that is similar to what the draft’s “formula builder” does,
but not exactly.
One thing I’ve learned is that all worlds are unique. One world may be a left-handed hitters world,
another may be a strong defensive world and a weak hitting world, and still
another may be a strong starting pitcher world with a weak power hitting
component. In this world, overall, my
spreadsheet suggests that the offensive-defensive side of the game seems to be
about 3-6% stronger than it’s pitching component, but there seems to be some
evidence that recently added new young pitchers are starting to close that gap.
So, to summarize, I’ve built a tool I use to analyze the
relative worth of the players in our world against other players in our world. This spreadsheet, for this season covers the
current ratings of all players who were listed as the World rolled and while
rosters were frozen waiting to fill, in the Major Leagues, AAA or AA and all
Major League and all Minor League Free Agents.
Now, I want to qualify this…the results of this analysis are
based on what HBD is showing me as the performance traits are for each
player. What I am seeing may not agree
with what you are seeing, and any difference in what we are seeing is likely a
function of how much money we have allocated to “Advanced Scouting.” Please keep that in mind as you review the
results.
So, without further ado…here are the results, of the
players I’ve rated 25th best thru 21th best…
#25: Dexter
Smith – Houston Bulls – American League
South - 28yr old Starting Pitcher
28-yr old Dexter Smith was obtained by the Houston Bulls as
the 2nd pick in the 1st round of the season 17 amateur
draft as an 18yr old out of Our Lady of Good Counsel High School in Wheaton,
Maryland and signed to a slot-valued bonus of $3.91M. He spent six and parts of a seventh season in
the minor leagues, which is somewhat unusual for a player drafted this high in
the draft. In the minor leagues he
forged an outstanding 89-18 won/loss record with an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of
1.10.
In his last two full minor league seasons, he sustained
substantial elbow injuries, limiting his experience in those seasons Though his
health rating is reasonably high, I once read an article which I cannot now put
my finger on, (forum?) in which it was stated that injuries to a certain body
part might preclude more injuries to the same body part in the future, and that
might be a long term concern as it relates to Dexter Smith.
He has now played three major league seasons and his
won-loss record at the major league level is 48-33 with a lifetime ERA of 3.68
and 1.27 WHIP. Opponents have hit .239
against him in his major league career and his strikeout to walk ration is 2.49
k’s to every walk.
Last season Dexter began to emerge as a dominant ML starting
pitcher, winning 20 games and losing only 5 with 197 k’s in 222 innings, a WHIP
of 1.11 and an ERA of 2.58. He was
rewarded with the American League’s Cy Young Award for that season’s results.
The following detail points to his potential…
Season 18: High A – Cy Young & Rookie of the Year;
Season 20: AAA – Cy Young & Rookie
of the Year; Season 21: AAA – Cy Young;
Season 26: ML – Cy Young and World Series Championship.
He’s a strong 7-inning starting pitcher who can easily and
effectively return every fifth game, but has only three pitches; a superlative
screwball, an average curve and a weak change-up. Having only this set of pitches, perhaps
he’ll have a decline in success earlier rather than later in his career. Another injury to his elbow in his major
league career would not be good.
He has very good control, is utterly dominant against right-hand
hitters, while very good against lefties and throws very hard, but is average
in getting the hitters to hit the ball on the ground.
Oddly, his ratings suggest that he has a very weak arm
strength when throwing the ball to the bases compared to when throwing to the
plate…but who cares about that with all his positive pitching attributes!
At the start of this season 27, he was signed to a 1yr
$1.895M, 1st arbitration season, ML contract and hence has this
season and next to play before he might reach free agency.
# 24: Marcell De
Aza: Arizona Anacondas – American League West - 35-year
old Starting Pitcher
De Aza is a pitcher who entered free agency this year and
was obtained by the Arizona Anaconda’s who surrendered their 1st
round pick. De Aza was originally
signed as an 18-yr old International Free Agent in season 10 by the Vancouver
Rain. It took a $12.8M signing bonus to originally
obtain him.
He’s presently in his 18th pro season. He spent less than three total seasons in
Vancouver’s minor league system before being promoted to the Major Leagues part
way through season 11. He spent nine
and a partial seasons pitching for Vancouver and pitching half his games in
their neutral ballpark, winning 125 games and losing only 80 games.
He’s been a nomad since being traded to Pawtucket in season
21. In season 22, he left Pawtucket via
free agency and signed with Richmond.
Richmond moved to Nashville, where he pitched seasons 23 and 24. Nashville then moved to Kansas City where he
pitched season 25. In season 26, he was
traded to Cincinnati where he pitched the entire year. This season, season 27, he left Cincinnati
via free agency and signed a 4yr major league contract paying roughly $8.1M per
season by Arizona.
His major league record is an excellent record, with a
won/loss record of 205 wins and only 132 losses. Opponent major leaguers have hit .247 against
him. His lifetime ERA is 3.59 with a
lifetime WHIP of 1.28. He’s averaged 6
1/3 innings per game but his stamina and durability ratings suggest that he can
go deep into games if necessary. He’s
outstanding against left-handed hitters and nearly as effective against
right-handers. He’s a finesse pitcher
who is decent at keeping the ball on the ground and has four decent pitches
though none of those four are outstanding.
He’s averaged 2.9 walks and 6.9 strikeouts per 9 innings.
He peaked at an OVR of 84 in season 24, and has declined to
a still admirable OVR of 83 in season 25, where it remains to this date. Arizona is hoping any further decline is kept
in check thru season 30. He slots as
Arizona’s 3rd starter in season 27.
Although 35 years of age, he’s never had an injury of any
sort, and he’s taken the ball faithfully every fifth game. He’s made three major league All-Star
teams.
#23: Tony Trajano Houston Bulls - American League South 24-yr old Starting Pitcher
Tony Trajana was originally drafted in the 1st
round, #7 overall by Atlanta in the season 22 amateur draft and signed to a
bonus of $3.44M. He pitched for
Atlanta’s High A affiliate in season 22 and their AA affiliate for part of
season 23. In season 23 he was traded to
Houston and pitched for their AA team the 2nd half of season 23 and
for Houston’s AAA team in seasons, 24, 25 and part of season 26. In his minor league career, he was used
exclusively as a starting pitcher and procured 58 wins against only 18 losses,
racking up a 2.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10.
Trajano is starting his sixth pro season and has less than a
season of major league service time. In
season 26, he pitched part of the season in the major leagues and was utilized
then solely as a relief pitcher. In 40
relief appearances, he had 5-wins and 5-losses and had four saves in eight save
opportunities with a very good ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.20.
He looks to be a six-inning starter if Houston so desires
and has excellent control. He could be
astoundingly difficult against right-handed hitters while only slightly less
difficult against left-handers. His
velocity is very good. He has only three
pitches; one an excellent 4-seam fast ball, the others being an average change
up and a slightly less than average curveball.
With only the three pitches, if it were me, and I had the starting
pitching depth, I would use him in long relief or as a tandom starter.
He won the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year award in AAA-American
League in season 24 and replicated the Cy Young award in AAA-American League in
season 25.
His health and make-up are certainly sufficient to be of no
radical concern. He should have a long
and illustrious career.
#22 Weldon
Pratt -
Sante Fe Fliers –
National League South - 24yr
old - 3rd Baseman
24yr old Weldon Pratt of the Santa Fe Fliers is our 1st
non-pitcher to make the list of top 25 players in Regular Joe’s world.
Pratt was drafted by the Monterrey Pelotero’s as the 2nd
overall pick in the1st round of the season 21 amateur draft. Owner, scarpio moved the team to Atlanta starting
season 22 and moved it again to Santa Fe to start season 26. It should be noted that Santa Fe could be
ranked 3rd worst ballpark for hitters in our world, arguably only
better that the league’s worst hitter’s ballpark; Burlington and 2nd
worst hitter’s ballpark; San Antonio. Keep
in mind, that as long as Pratt plays 81 of his games in Santa Fe, his offensive
output may be stunted to a certain extent.
Pratt has played six pro seasons, two of which were at the
major league level and has played in 323 of a possible 324 ML games in those
two years. His health and durability are
both quite high. At 24yrs of age, he may
have a bit more development potential, but likely not much.
He’s fairly slow but has sufficient power to generate 25-35
HR’s in any full season. Though he’s a
right-handed hitter, his ratings suggest he is a slightly better hitter against
right-handed pitchers than against left-handers. His hit ratings are not remarkable, but they
suggest he’s not an easy out either.
Defensively, his primary position is given as 3rd
base. In his rookie major league season,
he played right field and racked up 11+ defensive plays in 157 games played
there. In Pratt’s 2nd ML season, (season 26), he
split playing time about 60/40 between 3rd base and 2nd
base and racked up a total of 12+ plays.
His fielding percentage at 2nd base was a phenomenal .994 in
69 games, but at 3rd base in 83 games he was 5X more likely to make
an exceptional, (+) play. Defensively,
he won the Gold Glove as a right-fielder in season 24, in AAA. He also won the Gold Glove in the National
league as a rookie right-fielder in season 25 at the major league level. His fielding ratings suggest he could also be
extremely valuable and a potential candidate for a gold glove at that position
or possibly at 2nd base if Santa Fe chose to use him there.
In two ML seasons Weldon has hit .287 with an on-base
percentage of .365 and a slugging percentage of .481, averaging 31 HR’s and 102
rbi’s and 4 stolen bases per season. To
date, he’s been more than twice as likely to be caught stealing than to
successfully steal a base.
He was the MVP in season 24 in AAA in the National League
and won the Silver Slugger Award as a shortstop in Rookie ball, season 21.
#21 Don
Yoshii Huntington Motorboaters –
AL 29-yr old – Designated
Hitter
If you add up all of a player’s five key hitter ratings,
(contact, power, vs LHer’s, vs RHer’s and batting eye), there are eighteen
players in our world who’s total is higher than 400. Many of those players are one dimensional, in
that they generally don’t meet the HBD criteria that suggests an adequacy at a
defensive position or if they do so; they only meet the criteria for 1st
base or left field. An ability to play
catcher is a bonus.
Though Don Yoshii has a primary position of designated
hitter, he could validly be considered an adequate catcher. Hence, that potential vaults him above those
generally one-dimensional players and lands him at #21 in my grading of best
players in Regular Joe’s world.
He’s played six major league seasons. In his 1st three ML seasons, he
was used exclusively as a catcher. In
his last three ML seasons he’s been used almost exclusively as a DH.
Yoshii was obtained by El Paso (which is now Huntington) as an
International free agent in season 18, when it cost El Paso a $20.0M bonus to
outbid competition for his services.
Dbreez, who owns this franchise, moved the team from El Paso to
Huntington to start this season 27, so all Yoshii’s prior stats are while
playing in El Paso’s ballparks and El Paso’s major league ballpark is rated
neutral-to-pitcher friendly. The change
in major league sites ought to boost Yoshii’s offensive stats. In our Regular Joe’s world, Huntington is
rated the 2nd best park for hitter’s to hit in; 2nd only
to Madison’s ML ballpark.
In three minor league seasons Yoshii hit .330 and averaged
33 HR’s per season. In the majors, in
six seasons, he’s hit a career .288 with an OPS of .906, while averaging 33
HR’s and 93 rbi’s per season.
While Yoshii’s averaging 94 runs scored per season, it looks
like this franchise likes to push the speed aspect of this game. Yoshii, who’s speed and base running ratings
are marginal has attempted 74 stolen bases in his major league career and been
successful only 17 times; a stolen base success percentage of only 23%.
According to Yoshii’s ratings, he should absolutely crush
left-handed pitchers and be unlikely to swing at bad pitchers. He’s walked an average of 93 times per season
and combined with his average of 162 hits per season, that equates to an on
base percentage of nearly .400.
I note that in six full major league seasons, Don has missed
only 42 games, (an average of seven games missed per season), and that last
season he missed only one game! Though
his health rating is not superlative, he’s never been on the disabled list in
his professional career.
Last season, debreez signed Yoshii to a 5-yr, $7.25M per
season ML contract, so he’s under a very manageable major league contract, thru
season 30.
Next edition…players rated 16th thru 20th
best players in Regular Joe world…two shortstops and three starting pitchers.
Comments are welcome…
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