The Blog of Regular Joes World

Season 27 - Issue #3

 

Let’s take a brief diversion from my estimation of the 25 Best Players in Regular Joes world and discuss the Rule 5 draft.

Well, another season’s Rule 5 draft has come and gone, and spring training has started.  How did you do in the Rule 5 draft?

Everyone probably plays it differently.   I know that if I’ve recently taken over a poor team that has a pick in the first 5-10 picks, I’m excited for it.  But when I’m a team that doesn’t have a pick until more than midway through the 1^st round, then I’m not expecting too much. 

What I do first is review my own rosters and all Rule 5 eligible players.  Generally, I will have already promoted my capable prospects that have four or more seasons of pro experience to the 40-man roster before this time.  Sometimes I might have more than 40 players that have that merit, in which case, I have to do some real soul searching and decide which to risk by leaving them off the 40-man.   My team in Regular Joes had just about 39 players that were suited for the 40-man roster.

I check and double check just to make sure I don’t miss anyone.  I try to ensure that I have backup support at all skill positions like shortstop and catcher, (which are hard to come by in the spur of the moment if you should lose your major league ones.)

I left one opening this season…not so much because I expected to draft a Rule 5 player, but rather, because that was about the extent of my ML prospects.  I didn’t even have to waffle…after my 39^th most capable player, I was done…no regrets.

I also make sure that I set the salary cap I will tolerate so that I don’t accidentally draft anyone’s salary-dump player.  I usually set the cap at $500,000 or less.  I leave all positions open to be drafted on my draft page and set all to “5” as a level of strength.  I never bother with the lesser categories – like POWER, etc.  

I initially want to see all available Rule 5 players, but after reviewing them, I go back and set the limits to draft from no more than the first 7-10 players. 

Now I believe that if you are looking for a stud in the Rule 5 draft, you are not being realistic…UNLESS…you are hoping someone will make a mistake.  How many of us (I’m sure there are some), have been in a world where immediately after the draft some owner cries, “Oh, I forgot to protect my players!” 

I’ve been in worlds where owners do so and even some where the owner pleads for everyone to give him back the players he lost.  I’ve been in worlds where owners HAVE given back players they drafted.  I find this a huge disruption to the world and an unfair expectation on the part of any owner who forgets to do his part.  I’ve seen it three times, and once the forgetful owner almost demanded they be given back.  Thankfully we didn’t have any situation like that! 

I’ll go on record saying that I’m not going to give any players back if another owner makes a mistake in the Rule 5 draft.   Why?  Because unless the Rule 5 draft is completely done over, (and it’s never going to be done over), what occurred cannot be corrected.  Will I get to take the player I would have taken had I not taken the player the lapsing-owner wants back?  Doubtful.  Would you?

Next, I study my needs.  If you draft a player in the Rule 5 draft, you are immediately on the hook to him for the ML minimum contract of 1 year @ $327,000, unless you can get someone else to take him off your hands.  And you have to keep him on your big-league roster for a minimum of one full season, (unless he clears waivers and an offer back to his original owner is turned down).

Having saved a roster spot…what can be expected?    

I’ve never received any super star player in a Rule 5 draft…have you?  In general, you are getting your 24^th and/or 25^th roster player…and its likely he’s not worth the spot and will be paid a seriously inflated salary.

By rule, Rule 5 players are players with 4 or more seasons of pro experience who have not been put on a 40-man roster.  And by nature, (here’s the key take away), by nature Rule 5 guys…having a minimum of 4-years of experience are NOT guys that have much development, if any at all, remaining in this game.   Hence, I NEVER look at the projections on these players.  I only look at the Current ratings because I only want to draft players that are CURRENTLY capable of playing at the major league level.

In my experience, what I see is roughly 85-90% of the Rule 5 players drafted do not stick on a major league roster.  And I see 75% or more of those placed on waivers before spring training ends.   If he’s not a capable ML player and you can’t offload him, you’ve got a guy in AAA making 6X the AAA salary.  Given our salary caps, I don’t want to carry too many of those.  I never understand why owners draft Rule 5 players who have no possibility of being a big leaguer to begin with and then, put them on waivers hours or mere cycles after?  They are unlikely to develop any further.

I start by looking for specialties to supplement the better major leaguers I already possess…a great defensive catcher (catcher’s have always been under rated in terms of OVR given their typical low Range and Glove ratings among others); an outstanding defensive middle infielder or centerfielder, a short reliever with high splits; a workhorse pitcher for perhaps a 5^th starter, (or mopup guy if I have roster space), or a power hitter. 

I’m looking for guys who can play at the major league level in some role, and only players who can play at the major league level in some role!

I had 20^th pick this season.  I saw four players who were somewhat attractive to me.   Two were very attractive.  I was hoping to land a work horse pitcher for the mop-up role but there were no pitchers that fit the bill.

I saw two shortstops who appeared to be already outstanding defensively, and one, Lonnie Marian, who I felt was the best player available, because he also had a decent, but not great bat.  But when I looked at Marian’s minor league defensive stats, they scared me off a bit.  But regarding Marian, I also thought, “if not a ML shortstop, perhaps he could make a very good young defensive center fielder, and I don’t have a young defensive center fielder.”

I saw an excellent catcher playing at AA was available; Flash Phillips.  He was already a better hitter than one of my catchers and a better defensive player than my other catcher.   In my study, I had Phillips listed as already about the 325^th best player in our world and the player with the 6^th best current ratings of any player then at AA.   I only wished he was a better pitch caller.

Although I have a Gold Glove SS, I really could use an infusion of youth at both short stop and catcher.  On the one hand, seeing the two players mentioned above on the Rule 5 list was too good to be true, but then again, I really didn’t feel like I had a chance at either one.  

The other two were only marginally attractive to me…I ultimately passed on them feeling they were unlikely to be my 25^th best player.

Now, I went back and put Phillips 1^st and Marian 2^nd.  Then, I set the maximum rank that I would draft to the 2^nd player on my list and I was ready.

I really had no expectations.   When I am in the Rule 5 draft, (and also the Amateur draft), I will get up at 3:00 a.m. just to see who I’ve landed.  But not having an expectation of landing either of those two I got up at 8:00 and was surprised to find…I’d landed Phillips.  I think he’s my long-term answer at catcher and that the other two catchers that I presently have at the ML level are short term answers, but now I have a dilemma…do I carry three catchers or do I demote the good defensive catcher and carry only two?

 

About the results of the Season 27 Rule 5 draft.

The teams that had the 1^st three picks didn’t take a pick.  Of the teams that had the top 20 picks (the lesser records last season), only 11 took a pick.   

A total of 26 players were drafted.  Tacoma took seven players.  The first 3 players drafted were all drafted from the Las Vegas franchise, including a 17-yr veteran middle relief pitcher with a $4.0M ML contract.  (I think he has merit, but the 20 stamina worries me…how often will he be available?)

Tucson & Baltimore each lost four players; Las Vegas & Salem each lost 3; San Antonio, Rochester, Jacksonville all lost two players and Madison, Sioux Falls, Pawtucket, Portland, Austin and Scranton Wilkes-Barre lost 1 player.

The 1^st pick was David Parrish, a 23-year old, 2-pitch relief pitcher who was drafted by Portland from Las Vegas.  He has 4-yrs pro experience, has two good pitches and excellent control.  If anything purposely kept him off Las Vegas’ 40-man roster, it might be his splits.  He has gone a very good, 74 of 88 in minor league save opportunities. 

Marian was drafted as the 4^th player taken and went to Vancouver.  He might end up being a very good defensive shortstop; if anything his glove could be a bit better…or a center fielder with a cannon for an arm.   He lacks power (but how many excellent shortstops have power), and his batting eye may hold his average down.

Did I say I ended up with Phillips?  Surprised, YES.  Pleased, YES.  He went with the 9^th pick.  I wish his pitch calling skills were better, but his range, glove and arm strength are adequate for a ML catcher.  I also like what he can do with the bat.

I consider myself fortunate that I didn’t lose anyone in the draft and that I was able to obtain Phillips.  Only time will tell how good he ends up being at the major league level.  This may be a “red-shirt” season for him. 

Now, let’s get back to the listing of my 25 Best Players in Regular Joes World…

 

 

#15         Santos Nova                       Houston Bulls – AL South             23-yr old Short Stop

To some regret, I find that Regular Joes world is made up of “the haves” and the “have nots.”  The Houston Bulls specifically, and generally the teams that make up the American League South are “the haves.”  When I looked at Houston’s AAA roster last season, I saw a roster that looked capable of making the major league playoffs…they were that loaded at AAA.  Santos Nova of Houston is, as I write this, presently at AAA and is the only player on my list of 25 best players in Regular Joe’s world who is at AAA. 

Diminutive in stature at 5’ 8” and 163 lbs.; he’s hit 95 HR’s and had 324 rbis’ with a batting average of app. 331, in his last two seasons while playing at AAA.

He was obtained by the Bulls out of the season #23 International Free Agent pool when Houston outbid other teams by applying a $27.0M bonus combined with a major league spring training offer to get him to sign.  Houston has regularly been a big spender in the IFA market.

When originally signed in season #23, Nova was sent to Houston’s rookie team where in only 76 games, he hit 36 HR’s with an OPS of 1.252 and cleaned up practically all of that leagues award hardware, winning the Rookie of The Year, the Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove for shortstops, making the All-Star team and capturing the league’s MVP award.

In season #24, he was promoted to AA, where he was again dominant, and given the MVP award there as well.  Then he followed up by winning the MVP in each of his two full AAA seasons!  I can’t say this about any other player, but Nova has won an MVP award in every season in which he’s played professionally thus far.

He’s a lifetime .331 hitter in the minors, averaging 42 HR’s; 148 rbi’s; an on-base percentage of .442, a slugging percentage of .662 and an OPS of 1.118!  Yes, you read that right.

In the minor leagues, Nova has split his time defensively between 1B, LF, SS & 3B, playing 1^st base more often that the other positions.  His defensive ratings suggest he’s likely a capable, though not superior defensive shortstop, (his glove and arm properties being slightly below major league standards), but he’s not going to hurt badly at shortstop.

Unless he develops a bit more defensively; in the majors he is a more dominant 3^rd baseman or any other position except perhaps centerfielder, where he would still make a capable fielder, and be a CF with a dominant arm.  He’s made 79 plus plays in the minor leagues without a single negative mark.

All his hit ratings are above average, with his highest ratings being power and against left-handers.  I don’t believe he’ll be a .300 hitter in the major leagues but I suspect he will continue to hit over 30 HR’s per season when he finally gets promoted and is able to play full time there.  Houston, coming off a 103-win season and a World Series Championship may not presently need Nova’s services at the major league level, but he’s ready none-the-less. 

His health rating is very high and his durability is well above average, so injury does not appear to be a concern.  He has not been on the disabled list yet in his young career.

As long as Santos remains in AAA, he’s only being paid $54.5k, and even if he is promoted to the big leagues, he’ll only cost Houston $327k, so he’s a low cost/high upside player for Houston for a number of seasons to follow.

 

#14         Zachary Conner                Huntington Motorboaters                           29-yr old Starting Pitcher

Zachary Conner of Huntington graded out to be the 14^th best player on my board.  He’s the 6^th starting pitcher thus far showing up in the top 25 players.

Conner was obtained by dbreez in season 19’s amateur draft, when he was chosen with the 5^th overall pick and signed to a $6.15M above slot-level bonus.  This franchise was playing out of El Paso then, but the franchise has switched to Huntington to start this season.  Huntington is a very heavy hitter-leaning ball park, while El Paso was a much more pitcher friendly ball park, so we could see some drop off in Conner’s pitching stats though it ought not to affect his won/loss record. 

When Conner was signed he was sent directly to El Paso’s Rookie league team where in 12 games, he won 3 and lost 4 with an ERA of 2.49 a WHIP of 1.27 and all while striking out more than a batter an inning.  In season 20, he started at Low A and for 6 starts there he pitched very well, but upon being promoted to High A, he had a dreadful season.  In total in the minors, Conner won only 7 games against 20 losses.

For season 21, Conner started in AA and pitched decently in four starts there, before being promoted to the major leagues where he had a terrific rookie season.  He went 11 & 9 with an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.12 keeping hitters to a measly .225 batting average. 

He has now pitched nearly six full seasons at the major league level.  Zack has won 90 games while loosing only 45.  He has been a bit erratic in his career as it relates to ERA, having a low of 2.88 and a seasonal high of 4.91, (the 4.91 achieved in a season in which he gave up 48 HR’s), but the promise is always there even if giving up HR’s may plague him.  Moving to Huntington may not be so good for Conner given that propensity.

His lifetime ERA is 3.55 and lifetime WHIP is 1.23 while opponent batters have hit an average of .237 against the Huntington lefty.  He’s not the type of starter who will complete a game, having done so in only 3 of his 197 starts.  When he is at his best, he is more likely to throw seven innings. 

I see dominant LH/RH splits especially against left handers and excellent control.  There are no dominant pitches in his 4-pitch tool set but his velocity is admirable.  His best two pitches are variations on his fast ball; a split finger fast ball and a 4-seam fast ball.  His slider and curve don’t meet the grade level shown for the fastball variations.  He does throw hard and strikes out 7.3 batters while walking 3.3 batters per nine innings.

Conner has been on two major league All-Star teams in his near-six major league seasons.  He’s won 16-games in a season twice in his ML career.

Dbreez just signed Conner to a new 5-yr ML contract paying $8.5M per season starting season #27 and running thru season #31.

 

#13         Dennys Murphy                               Huntington Motorboaters                           30-yr old 2^nd Baseman

Another Huntington player falls at #13 in my estimation.  30-yr old, Dennys Murphy will be starting his 10^th professional season and 8^th major league season as season 27 begins.  He was originally obtained by the Syracuse franchise in season #18’s amateur draft, when he was selected with the 2^nd overall pick in the 1^st round.  He signed to a slot-level $3.91M bonus.  Immediately sent to AA by Syracuse, he had a rather tough 1^st season, hitting only .234 with 9 HR’s in 72 AA games.

Murphy was traded to El Paso, (now Huntington) to start season #19.  El Paso/Huntington gave up David Creek, a fine 2^nd baseman (who falls at #34 on my grade sheet) and Esmil Aguilar, a journeyman starting pitcher (who grades at #225 on my list), to obtain Murphy. 

For El Paso/Huntington in season #19 again at AA, Murphy began to show his true promise. Hitting .353 while playing in all 144 games.  He also added 41 HR’s and 132-rbi’s.  After playing 22 games at AAA in season #20, he was promoted to the big leagues.  Remarkable, in nearly 7 full ML seasons, he’s played in every game ‘cept one!  That’s right…all but one game!

In his Rookie season in the majors, he hit .301 and in his 3^rd ML season he hit .344, he’s otherwise been about a .280 hitter (.289 overall in majors), who has medium power (averages about 20 HR’s per season).  He’s been more of a doubles hitter as he played half his games in El Paso.  Moving to Huntington, we ought to see a rise in hitting prowess from Murphy.

He has average speed which has equated to about 15 stolen bases per season, with an average of being caught of 9 per season. 

Defensively his grades suggest he could be a 2^nd basemen lacking range but having a powerful arm or a 3^rd baseman or right fielder with Gold Glove capability at those positions.  At 2^nd, he’s certainly sure-handed.  That is where he’s played 74% in his major league career.  He carries a .985 fielding average with a 2B range factor of 4.78.  At 2B, he’s made 60 plus plays against only 2-minus plays.  The other 26% of the time, he’s played right-field with a .982 fielding average.

His hitter ratings suggest a hitter who may have slightly above average power and speed, but one who might hit for a high average, as his splits are very high.  Health and durability are exceptionally high, (as indicated by how he’s played so Ripken/Gehrig-eskly) and he’s never been on the disabled list.  

Murphy was the Rookie of The Year in the AL, major leagues in season #20; a Gold Glove major league right fielder in season #21; made the AL All-Star team and was honored with the Silver Slugger for 2^nd Basemen in season 22.

As a hitter, his last four seasons have been good, but not great.  Let us see what effect, if any, the change in scenery to Huntington has on Murphy.

To start season 26, Murphy signed a new 4yr ML contract paying $9.3M per season. 

 

 

#12         Max Jimenez                     Arizona Anachondas                      35-yr old Starting Pitcher

35-year old, Max Jimenez holds down the 12^th spot in my estimation of the 25 best players in Regular Joes World.  He’s the 3^rd starting pitcher from the Anachonda’s staff to make this list.  Keep in mind that the Arizona starting pitchers duly identified have an average age of more than 34-yrs of age; experienced to say the least.

Jimenez has only played for this particular franchise but was originally obtained through the amateur draft when the franchise was the San Diego Toreros.  He was obtained with the 6^th pick in the 1^st round of the season #12 draft but he held out for more than a slot-sized bonus; finally agreeing to sign with a bonus of $8.0M.  Season #27 will be Max’s 16^th season playing pro ball and 12^th at the ML level.

He played for the franchise as it was San Diego from season 12 thru season 20.  San Diego’s major league facility favors the pitcher.  The franchise then moved to Santa Cruz for seasons 21 thru 23.  Santa Cruz’s ML ballpark also heavily favors the pitcher.  The franchise was moved to Arizona to start season #24.  Arizona’s major league park favors the hitter slightly, with it’s greatest effect on the potential for triples.

Jimenez started his professional career in season 12, at Low A.  He pitched five games there, winning 4 games without a loss, and moved up to High A where he started 7 games, won 5 and lost only 1.  In his 1^st pro season, splitting times at the two levels combined he had a 9-win and 1-loss record with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 0.98 while striking out 87 batters in only 60 innings, totally dominating A-ball hitters.  In fact, throughout his minor league career which lasted thru five starts at AAA to open season 15, he dominated…strikeouts continued at a pace of greater than one per inning.

In his rookie major league season Jimenez won 12 games and lost 11 while posting a 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  In each of his 11 major league seasons since, he’s won more than 12 games.  Lifetime in the majors, Jimenez has won 201 games, (which puts him within reach of 2^nd place for all-time wins in Regular Joes world), while losing only 110.  Max’s lifetime ERA is 3.26 with a WHIP of 1.12.  Major league opponents have hit only .226 against him.  He has 2,583 strikeouts, approaching the top five career strikeout leaders in the world.

Jimenez has four decent major league pitches in a 5-pitch repertoire.  His best pitch is a sinker which helps him prevent the big fly, (hitters have hit less than one homerun per nine innings against him.  He has remarkable stamina, having completed 80 of the 388 major league games that he has started and averaging over 7 1/3^rd innings per start.   He also has durability…that rating suggests he can occasionally pitch with shorter rest than is typical in a 5-man rotation and he has for Arizona on occasion.

He can also, on occasion show a wild streak, averaging more than three walks every nine innings. 

Jimenez’s health rating is very high and he’s never been on the disabled list in his career. (Can you hear me knocking on wood?)

He won the AL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in AA in season 13.  In the majors, he’s been a 10-time American League All-Star, has won a Cy Young Award in Arizona in season 24 and has pitched two no-hitters.  His career is starting to smell of Hall of Fame potential.

This season; number 27, Max is playing on a $8.5M ML contract.  This was to be the last season on Jimenez’s contract with Arizona.  To start season 27, he was signed to a new 3yr contract extension to run from season 28-to-30 and paying $8.3M per season. 

 

#11         Randy Perez                      Austin Express – NL South           31-year old 3^rd Baseman

At 11 on my list of 25 best players in Regular Joes world is Randy Perez, Austin’s power hitting 3^rd baseman.

Perez has played for six owners and in six different franchise cities in his 13-year pro career; the last two for owner Scotb50 in Austin and Austin has really agreed with his talents, as he’s had his most productive seasons in those past two.

He was originally drafted in season 14, with the 1^st overall pick and signed to a very comfortable slot-value $4.0M bonus.  The franchise was in New Orleans then.  In his first season he played 67 games at Low A, hitting .346 with 15 HR’s and was actually promoted to the big leagues where he played 18 more games but only hitting .164 with 1 homerun and 3-rbi’s.

In his 2^nd season, under a new owner, back to High A and while playing for Tampa Bay, he hit .267 with 43 HR’s and 147 rbi’s in 128 games.  He started his 3^rd pro season in AA; tore it up there with a .368 BA, 14 HR’s and 40 rbi’s and was promoted to AAA.  At AAA, he struggled.  His average dropped more than .125 points, but he still showed off that raw power, hitting a HR about every 15 official at bats.

In Season 17, under a new owner again, and now playing in Richmond, he was promoted to the ML which turned out to be permanent thereafter.  Playing every game, he hit .278 with 27 HR’s and 80 rbis.  The next season the franchise was in Texas under a new owner yet again.  The travelling stabilized for three overall seasons in Texas, where he played every single game and hit roughly .287 with an average of 38 HR’s and 119 rbis, including a high of 47 HR’s.

To start season 21, the franchise was on the move again, this time to Charlotte.  In four seasons in Charlotte; one an abbreviated season owing to a major injury which ended his season after 72 games played, he averaged about .298 while hitting 157 HR’s including two seasons of more than 50! 

In the last two seasons, (playing in Austin), he’s hit roughly .290, with 107 HR’s including 61 in season 26 and a total of 274 rbi’s with a high of 154 last season.  He has 417 career HR’s and probably has a good 7-9 seasons left in him!  I think he has the capability and health to approach 700 career HR’s.

His ratings suggest that he has absolutely astonishing power and an ability to destroy right-handed pitching, (he’s a left-handed hitter).  He has a better than average batting eye, and a decent ability to make contact though his record says he’s likely to strike out about once every 6 official at bats.  He’s swinging for the fences! 

Don’t expect Perez to steal you a base.  He tries about 12 times a season and is successful only half the time.  In six seasons, he’s scored over 100 runs, but when one is averaging 40 HR’s per season, that isn’t as remarkable as it sounds.  He may clog the base paths. He’s not overly slow, it’s just not his finest trait.  He’s being paid to “knock ‘em in” not win a sprint.

Defensively, Perez split his 1^st ML season between LF and 1B.  In his 2^nd thru 4^th ML seasons he played exclusively at 2B.  In his 5^th thru 10^th ML seasons, he’s played predominantly at 3^rd base.  His ratings settled at a level that suggests 3^rd base is where he can best help his franchise.  In his ML career while playing 3^rd base, he has a .974 fielding percentage, with a range of 3.37 and has made 84 plus plays and no minus plays. 

Randy’s health rating is high.  He’s had only one major injury in his career and he’s durable as well; having played all 162 games in six of his ten major league seasons.

Perez has made the National league’s, major league All-Star team four times, and has won a Silver Slugger for 3^rd baseman in that league four times as well.  He’s won one Gold Glove for 3^rd basemen and has been National League MVP twice.  Here’s another player in the midst of a Hall of Fame-type career.

In season 25, Perez had a contract option.  That was the first season Scotb50 owned the franchise.  He was wise enough to respect Perez’s contributions and value to the team and take the option while ALSO signing Perez to a new 5-year $45.5M ML contract which pays $10.1M this 2^nd season on that contract.

 

Next Issue – Players ranked 6 thru 10…who are you thinking might be still to come on this list?